Sunday, June 01, 2008

Drowning Statistics

Couldn't leave well enough alone.

One of the first statistics I found via Google is that there are about 10 children dying of drowning each year in Phoenix. Let's say half of them are under the age of five. And then say half of those were due to bathtub unattendance. (Which is conservative - again, most drowning occurs in pools.) Bringing us to around 3 a year.

There's 1.3 million people in Phoenix. So we could roughly say that there's 800K under-fives.

The question - how many of these under-fives are left unattended in the bath?

If we say that there are 1 in 100 children with "bad" parents in Phoenix, that's 8000 kids who bathe unattended, 3 of whom die each year. So...if you decide to be a "bad" parent this year and let your child bathe unattended regularly, that's a...1 in 2400 chance of losing your child. Per year of unattended bathing. Which is very rare...although I still wouldn't want to roll those dice there are probably bigger dangers which we can either do nothing about and/or are unconscious of.

But definitely a green light on leaving historically cautious and smart three or four year olds unattended for a minute or two, I figure. But, just to cover my ass, if you follow this advice I am in no way responsible for your dead kid.

4 comments:

Brett said...

I admit to being somewhat suspicious of your math... OK, that's being polite. You have overestimated the number of 5 year olds in Phoenix.

While there are in fact 1.5 million people in Phoenix, it seems a little strange to me that 800K of them would be 5 or under. Maybe you meant 80K? Which would skew the odds higher, more like 1 in 240 per year.

Brett said...
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Brett said...
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Brett said...

Sorry, blogger was having issues this morning and reported comments as not being posted, though evidently they were.